Back in 2021, UCLA made March Madness history with an unforgettable Final Four run. A comeback win in overtime in the First Four, followed by victories over No. 6 seed BYU, No. 14 seed Abilene Christian, No. 2 seed Alabama and No. 1 seed Michigan cemented the Bruins as one of the most remarkable underdog stories in the history of the tournament.
However, things were not always so bright for this team. After dropping their final three games of the season, the Bruins lost in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament. They were lucky to find a spot in March Madness at all.
Now, the Bruins find themselves in a similar position to that 2021 team just before its magical run – backs against the wall and odds stacked against them.
After a crushing defeat to Wisconsin last Friday in the Big Ten Tournament, UCLA looks ahead to the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins (22-10, 13-7 Big Ten) have earned themselves a No. 7 seed, set to face No. 10 seed Utah State (26-7, 15-5 Mountain West) in a first-round matchup Thursday at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky.
Utah State is coming off of a semifinal exit out of the Mountain West Conference tournament at the hands of Colorado State. The Utah State Aggies’ strengths lie with their offense, one of the most dominant units in the country. They rank No. 17 out of 364 teams in the KenPom offensive efficiency rating. They also score an average of 80.9 points per game, putting them in the top 30, and rank top 15 in field goal percentage at 48.95%.
The Bruins, on the other hand, have ridden on the backs of their defense all season long. They allow the least points per game to opponents of any Big Ten team, surrendering just 65.7 per contest. The Bruins notably held a Gonzaga team averaging 86.6 points per game to just 62. They also rank 17th in the KenPom defensive efficiency rating.
Since January, Utah State is 0-4 when scoring fewer than 70 points, something the Bruins could capitalize off of. Hindering the Aggies’ highly efficient offense may likely be the key to victory.
The Aggies’ defense, on the other hand, has been a weakness for them all season, ranking No. 151 in defensive efficiency and No. 111 in points allowed per game. Ready to face it is a UCLA offense that is not outstanding in many metrics. However, what they do excel at, they tend to stick to. The team plays at the No. 301 fastest pace, opting to take its time offensively and settle into a rhythm.
In their blowout defeat to Wisconsin, the Bruins abandoned their slow, half-court style of basketball. Due to the early deficit, the team was forced into quick possessions and taking contested 3s. If Utah State is able to build an early lead, it may be difficult for the Bruins to overcome it.
UCLA boasts a decent size advantage over Utah State, whose top four scorers are all 6’5” or shorter. 7’3” center Aday Mara should see his fair share of play against the Aggies, and with little to no one to match his size, he could be in for a big game.
“Matchups are really, really important,” said coach Mick Cronin. “I’m a big believer in that.” The Bruins will have to capitalize on the matchup advantages they have over Utah State if they want to advance to the next round and keep their hopes of a deep run alive.
Finding success in the NCAA Tournament simply requires a different level of intensity, something not every player or team is equipped to handle. “You’ve got to be the toughest team, you’ve got to play really smart,” Skyy Clark said. “You’ve got to come in sharp.”
A matchup with No. 2 seed Tennessee would likely be waiting for the Bruins in the second round with a win, assuming the Volunteers take care of No. 15 seed Wofford. However, Cronin and the Bruins are only focused on what’s directly ahead of them. “We got to win Thursday. You don’t think about anything else,” Cronin said.
UCLA is favored to win the matchup, but in March, nothing is certain.
