Jan. 7, 2026 marks the one-year anniversary of the Palisades and Eaton fires, the most destructive wildfires in Los Angeles history. The fires followed nine months of abnormally low rainfall, extremely dry vegetation and Santa Ana winds reaching speeds of up to 90 mph.
This year, however, Southern California experienced a dramatic shift in weather patterns. The 2025 Christmas season brought the wettest holiday period ever recorded in the region. According to the National Weather Service, rainfall totals ranked among the seven rainiest starts to a year in recorded history.
This sharp contrast between extreme dry and wet conditions is known as hydroclimate whiplash, a phenomenon increasingly observed worldwide as human activity accelerates climate change. The recent rainfall in Los Angeles exemplifies this pattern, with weather conditions rapidly swinging from one extreme to another.
Understanding the environmental consequences of this shift is especially important for UCLA’s class of 2029. While predictions remain uncertain, climate scientists expect dry winters to eventually return as hydroclimate whiplash continues to oscillate between wet and dry conditions. Because first-year students did not experience the Palisades fires while enrolled at UCLA, many have not witnessed the severe consequences associated with prolonged dry seasons.
As of this year, the probability of a wildfire occurring near UCLA’s campus has dropped below 2% due to increased rainfall and wetter conditions. However, a UCLA Newsroom report examining the aftermath of the 2022–23 wet season found that heavy rainfall led to dense vegetation growth. When followed by drought, this growth intensified wildfire severity during the Palisades fire.
This pattern aligns with the broader understanding of hydroclimate whiplash: periods of heavy rain promote rapid plant growth, which later dries out during droughts, creating large amounts of flammable brush that allow wildfires to spread more easily. The environmental consequences of this cycle pose ongoing risks for Los Angeles. Following the current period of widespread plant growth resulting from heavy rainfall over winter break, experts anticipate another drought within the next two to three years, which would once again elevate wildfire risk.
Despite these challenges, researchers at the UCLA Center for Climate Science are studying ways to use increased rainfall to prepare for future dry periods. Their work focuses on how reservoirs and water infrastructure can better capture and store water during wet years.
Using data collected from atmospheric rivers, UCLA researchers have developed highly detailed climate models to help water resource managers predict changes in precipitation. These models account for both flood and drought risks and show that, in a greenhouse gas–rich world, wet seasons are expected to become wetter.
The findings highlight the consequences of increasingly volatile weather cycles. During extreme dry years, water scarcity may limit the ability to meet human demand and place stress on ecosystems, increasing wildfire risk. In contrast, extreme wet years may strain infrastructure such as levees and dams and increase the likelihood of mudslides. The models also show that sequences of severe storms are five times more likely to result in catastrophic flooding.
Overall, the Center’s research presents a concerning outlook for California’s future weather-related disasters. UCLA students and Los Angeles residents are encouraged to monitor wildfire maps during drought periods and stay informed about flood warnings during intense storms. Resources are available through university, city and state agencies to help residents prepare for these evolving risks.
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Featured Image via BruinLife Archives
